Here's the overview of Virginia ACA exchange enrollment over the course of OEP 2026 vs. 2025. Stand-alone dental plan enrollment is up 2.3%, which is nice, but overall major medical plan (Qualified Health Plan, or QHP) enrollment dropped by nearly 19,000 people, or 4.8% year over year.
There's also 14% fewer enrollees receiving federal tax credits than last year (nearly 47,000 people), while another 15% lost Cost Sharing Reduction assistance (CSR).
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Approves New York’s Request to Transition Back to Basic Health Program Authority
Approximately 450,000 New Yorkers Will Become Ineligible for the Essential Plan Beginning July 1, 2026, and Will Instead Be Eligible for Qualified Health Plans
ALBANY, N.Y. (March 23, 2026) - The New York State Department of Health provided an update following federal approval from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) of the State’s request to terminate its Section 1332 State Innovation Waiver and return to Basic Health Program (BHP) authority.
The transition preserves Essential Plan coverage for approximately 1.3 million New Yorkers with incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty level.
A few weeks ago I noted that the first hard data on effectuated ACA marketplace enrollment (as opposed to how many people selected plans) had started to come in from a handful of states...Maryland and Massachusetts in particular. While the data is still sparse, the early trendlines are already starting to show up:
For months now I've been warning that the initial data published about the 2026 ACA enrollment would likely massively underestimate just how ugly things were in terms of both effectuated enrollment as well as how comprehensive the coverage would be for those who did enroll.
Back in December, when Open Enrollment was still going on, I noted that regardless of what the official number of Americans who selected an exchange plan during Open Enrollment was, the actual number of those who would have effectuated coverage over the course of the year would likely be far lower:
So, what will this graph look like for 2026?
...IF that's what ends up happening, it would look something like the following:
HealthSource RI Open Enrollment 2026 closes with falling enrollment trend
Mar 9, 2026
PROVIDENCE, RI – HealthSource RI (HSRI) concluded its annual Open Enrollment (OE) period January 31, with enrollment totals and the mix of plan selections bearing out expectations, as customers faced increased monthly costs upon the expiration of enhanced federal premium tax credits. Individual and Family enrollments totaled 38,557 during this Open Enrollment, a 10-percent decline from the record-high close of OE2025 (42,695). Overall enrollment decreased by 20% from year-end (48,060) to the end of OE, a highly unusual development, as the marketplace has recorded growth nearly every year in that same span.
About a month ago, I once again reiterated that the official year over year ACA Open Enrollment Period plan selection drop from OEP 2025 to OEP 2026, which currently stands at around 1.26 million people (23.06M in 2026 vs. 24.32M in 2025) was incredibly misleading for a number of reasons:
Not only are there always some people who never have their enrollment effectuated in the first place due to either the policyholder actively cancelling their policy before it even begins or having it terminated by the carrier due to them not paying their first monthly premium, but that effectuated enrollment can vary widely from month to month due to the "churn" of people either starting or ending exchange coverage.
Earlier this week the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance put out a press release with the final 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period data for the state:
Enrollment Expected to Decline As Federal Changes Continue to Impact Affordability
TRENTON —More than 509,000 New Jersey residents enrolled in health insurance coverage for 2026 through Get Covered New Jersey, the state’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace, during the Open Enrollment Period. However, the state is cautioning that the full effect of the loss of federal subsidies has not impacted the marketplace yet and is predicting a material drop off in enrollment this Spring.
Expanded outreach and new financial assistance helped keep residents covered
HARTFORD, Conn. (Feb. 19, 2026) — Access Health CT (AHCT), Connecticut’s official health insurance marketplace, today announced a record number of Connecticut residents enrolled in health and dental insurance during the 2026 Open Enrollment Period, which began Nov. 1, 2025 and ended Jan. 31, 2026. This is the third year in a row AHCT has seen record-breaking enrollment.
A total of 157,246 people enrolled in a Qualified Health Plan (QHP) during the 2026 Open Enrollment Period, compared to 151,151 at the end of the Open Enrollment Period in 2025. This year’s enrollment broke last year’s record by 4%.
Included in that number are 51,629 residents enrolled in the Covered CT Program, compared to 41,165 during the Open Enrollment Period last year. Covered CT provides no-cost coverage for eligible residents. The State of Connecticut pays the consumer portion of premiums and cost-sharing.
