END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

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Charles Gaba's blog

Working on this so check back frequently for updates...

Weekly Enrollment Snapshot: Week One: Week 1, Nov 1-4, 2017

In week one of Open Enrollment for 2018, 601,462 people selected plans using the HealthCare.gov platform. As in past years, enrollment weeks are measured Sunday through Saturday. Consequently, week one was only four days long this year - from Wednesday to Saturday.

Every week during Open Enrollment, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will release enrollment snapshots for the HealthCare.gov platform, which is used by the Federally-facilitated Exchanges, the State Partnership Exchanges, and some State-based Exchanges. These snapshots provide point-in-time estimates of weekly plan selections, call center activity, and visits to HealthCare.gov or CuidadoDeSalud.gov.

As I noted Wednesday morning, the Congressional Budget Office released an report with updated estimates of what they figure the budget and healthcare coverage impact of repealing the ACA's Individual Mandate Penalty would be over the next decade. Their conclusions?

The Results of CBO and JCT’s Analysis CBO and JCT estimate that repealing that mandate starting in 2019—and making no other changes to current law—would have the following effects:

New York State of Health posted this press release today...

ALBANY, NY (November 8, 2017) – NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today announced a new partnership with ride sharing companies Lyft and Uber. Through the partnership, Lyft and Uber will reach more than 200,000 drivers throughout New York State urging them to visit the Marketplace to shop for and enroll in quality, affordable health insurance. NY State of Health will work directly with Lyft and Uber to promote coverage options and enrollment opportunities for drivers through an email campaign, In-App notifications and in-person education on coverage options.

This is just an update to an existing Washington Post story, but it looks like the Maryland exchange is issuing near-daily updates (which is awesome in my view):

...Statewide, in fact, growth is up 100 percent since last year, according to Betsy Plunkett, a deputy director for the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange. First-time enrollment is up 15 percent, with changes to existing plans up 270 percent. Overall, 10,420 people enrolled in the first week compared to 5,212 in 2016, she said.

OK, that headline is a bit of clickbait, I admit.

Rhode Island is a tiny state, so any number change is gonna look pretty outsized, but this is still an eye-opener:

In Rhode Island, enrollment this year is five times higher in the first week than it was last year, said Zach Sherman, the director of HealthSource R.I. An early outreach campaign by the state seems to have paid off with more than 500 people enrolling, compared to 109 people in the first week last year.

I've received a hard number direct from the exchange: It's actually 604 new enrollees through 11/07, versus 126 new enrollees in the first 7 days last year.

 

...it's that the ~35% of the public who still support Donald Trump won't get the joke.

(sigh)

But..whatever. So be it. There's 38 days left for most states. Go to HealthCare.Gov and sign up today. 

Last July I posted:

Several regular commenters here at ACA Signups have been wondering why the Congressional Budget Office keeps using March 2016 as the "baseline" for projecting the net impact on healthcare coverage numbers under the GOP's Trumpcare bills (the House's AHCA and the Senate's BCRAP), as opposed to the more recent January 2017 baseline. After all, according to the March 2016 baseline, the CBO was projecting that under the ACA, the total individual market would have 25 million people as of 2026 (18 million on the exchanges plus another 7 million off-exchange), whereas under the January 2017 baseline, their projections are for the individual market to only be 20 million as of 2027 (13 million on the exchanges plus 7 million off-exchange). Taken at face value, this would seem to suggest a 5 million enrollee discrepancy. This drumbeat has been taken up more recently by GOP Senators, particularly Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson.

As I noted a few days ago, Maryland was the first state to issue Day One numbers, and they were pretty impressive, a 70% increase year over year.

Well, apparently they've increased the pace since then:

"We realize it's a shorter period so we have to get people in the door quicker," said Andrew Ratner, chief marketing officer for Maryland Health Benefit Exchange, which runs the marketplace.

Sign-ups have been brisk so far, with more than 5,000 people picking plans in the first two days, nearly twice as many as last year. The Maryland Health Connection website, which usually closes at 11 p.m., had to stay open an hour later on Wednesday because 300 people were still online. Maryland currently has about 120,000 Obamacare enrollees.

...and again in Day Three:

via Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post:

That same day in Connecticut [Wednesday, Nov. 1st], 1,596 residents enrolled in qualified health plans on the state exchange while another 2,293 people either completed Medicaid applications or determined that they were eligible for that program. Access Health CT CEO Jim Wadleigh said in a statement that the state’s call center and website experienced a 15 percent increase in volume compared to opening day last year.

Not much to add here; last year the first enrollment number I had for Connecticut didn't show up until halfway through November (about 16,000 selections in 15 days), but that doesn't give me much to compare with for the first day only. Still, the 15% traffic increase is a good thing.

Press release from MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange:

MNsure update on first week of open enrollment

ST. PAUL—MNsure CEO, Allison O’Toole, issued the following statement recapping the first full week of open enrollment:

“The first seven days of this year’s open enrollment period have gone smoothly. We are off to a strong start and doing a steady business of enrolling Minnesotans in health care coverage. Market disruptions last year— including a large jump in premiums, a major carrier pulling out of the market, the first year of enrollment caps as well as other factors—drove large numbers of consumers to our doors in the first few days of last year’s enrollment period. This year, we are seeing a much steadier flow of traffic to the website that is more in line with what we would expect. Call wait times have been consistently low throughout this first week.”

This year, MNsure renewed more people into coverage than ever before. Open enrollment figures will be released next Wednesday at MNsure’s public board meeting.

Over the past week or so I've seen or been sent several screen shots along these lines:

My plan went from $1500/mo to $2500/mo. $30,000/yr before copays and deductibles. Very affordable stuff.... pic.twitter.com/uurZFVDw7T

— Mark Gallagher (@MJGRealtor) November 1, 2017

If you click on the image to see the full-size version, the key part is this:

Your new premium:

(sigh) OK, I wasn't planning on doing week-by-week estimates/projections given how batcrap insane this Open Enrollment Period is (not just in terms of the sabotage efforts and repeal lunacy, but also due to the time window being slashed in half for most states). In the end, however, my inner data geek got the better of me, so here we are.

Today is November 7th. The 2018 Open Enrollment Period's first week ends at midnight tonight. Here's what we know so far:

UPDATE: A couple more state numbers have come in this afternoon:

This may seem a bit anticlimactic after yesterday's "200,000 on Day One!" HealthCare.Gov leak, but every data point helps.

I've received official numbers from the Massachusetts Health Connector through Day Five (November 5th).

Unlike most states, the Massachuetts exchange also handles premium billing/payments themselves, so they have a more elaborate enrollment reporting system. However, I've confirmed the following breakout:

  • 628: Current enrollees, plans selected
  • 3,860: Current enrollees, plans selected/paid
  • 445: Returning* enrollees, plans selected
  • 215: Returning enrollees, plans selected/paid
  • 1,375: New enrollees, plans selected
  • 472: New enrollees, plans selected/paid

Total: 6,995 total plans selected, of which 4,547 are fully enrolled (i.e., 1st premium paid).

*"Returning enrollees" means someone who's already in the MA exchange system because they were previously enrolled in an exchange policy in the past but isn't currently enrolled in one. For instance, they might have been enrolled from 2015-2016, but then left the exchange for 2017 and is returning for 2018.

For awhile now I've been noting that making predictions about how many people will actually enroll in ACA exchange plans for 2018 is extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. On the one hand, Donald Trump has been desperately trying to sabotage the law any way he can, including everything from slashing outreach funding by 90% and cutting the enrollment period in half to cutting off Cost Sharing Reduction reimbursement payments...while at the same time Congressional Republicans have been desperately trying to repeal the law outright. All of this has caused a tremendous amount of confusion, as well as causing average unsubsidized premiums to shoot up around 30% on average nationally.

As both the largest-population state in the country and the largest state-based exchange under the ACA, Covered California provides an important guideline for me when it comes to attempting to track national enrollment data. They hold over 12% of the total U.S. population and enrolled 12.7% of all ACA exchange enrollments for 2017, coming in second only to Florida's 14.4%.

Today I confirmed that on Day One of the 2018 Open Enrollment Period, CoveredCA signed up 5,979 people...around 25% more than they did on Nov. 1st last year.

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